The immediate jubilation among Israelis over the airstrike that killed the longtime Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah on Friday is premature. Israel’s dramatic escalation in its conflict with Hezbollah777oreo, the Iran-backed militant group, poses a serious risk of embroiling both Israel and the United States in a costly forever war — an outcome that will bring neither stability nor peace to Israel or the Middle East.
There is no doubt that Hezbollah has been dealt a series of severe blows in recent months. Israel has killed at least four of its top commanders, including Mr. Nasrallah, in addition to the carefully planned pager and walkie-talkie attacks on its rank-and-file members this month. But eliminating Hezbollah as a threat to Israel cannot be achieved through military means alone. And far from ensuring the safe return of Israel’s roughly 60,000 citizens displaced from their homes in the north of the country — Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s stated goal for the current escalation — this path may only harden the resolve of Hezbollah’s tens of thousands of supporters in Lebanon and beyond.
As satisfying as Mr. Nasrallah’s assassination may feel to those seeking Hezbollah’s destruction, his death is unlikely to paralyze the group for long. Israel killed Mr. Nasrallah’s predecessor, Abbas al-Musawi, in 1992, and senior commander, Imad Mughniyeh, in 2008. Hezbollah not only survived but grew in strength. It’s hard to see why this time would be different. Mr. Nasrallah’s second in command, Hashem Safieddine, a cleric and a cousin of the deceased leader who shared his worldview, might already have stepped in as the new de facto head of the organization.
What Israel has repeatedly underestimated is Hezbollah’s asabiyya, or social solidarity, its political will and its resilience. Hezbollah is a deeply institutionalized organization that is embedded in the social and political fabric of Lebanon. It has set up a vast welfare system that provides food and services to communities across Lebanon. It has 13 elected lawmakers in Parliament and powerful allies in the country’s security forces. Its Shia-dominant ideology is also steeped in an ethos of victimhood, sacrifice and martyrdom, insulating it against loss and demoralization. Since Hezbollah’s establishment in the early 1980s, the group has weathered the loss of not only its highest leaders but also thousands of combatants.
As the United States learned in both Afghanistan and Iraq, defeating a committed insurgency or resistance movement is almost impossible. As a nonstate paramilitary organization, Hezbollah can continue to use asymmetrical warfare to its own advantage, waging a sustained guerrilla campaign that prevents Israel from returning residents of the north safely to their homes.
If Israel is under the illusion it can weaken Hezbollah as effectively as it has Hamas, it is wrong. Hezbollah is estimated to have up to 50,000 armed combatants; in 2021, Mr. Nasrallah boasted that the group had 100,000 trained fighters, though that claim is difficult to verify. Though it may take time for the group to recuperate, its forces far exceed the number of Hamas fighters and other Iran-backed militias in the region. Hezbollah has tens of thousands of rockets and missiles in its stockpile, including guided ballistic missiles.
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